Where Will All the CDC Chaos Take Us? Polycritical Foresight Analysis

An exercise to better understand how the upheaval at the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention might unfold, what it means for vaccines in the U.S., and possible responses.

If you live in U.S., and even if not, you’ve probably seen some of the turmoil at the CDC, particularly regarding mixed messaging about the updated Covid-19 boosters.

Earlier this week I shared my proposal for polycritical foresight—a method that fuses futures thinking, threat modeling, and systems analysis—as a means of better grappling with (aspects of) the polycrisis. Here, I’m practicing what I preach: applying PF to the unfolding crisis in U.S. public health. By mapping cascading risks as an attack tree, I hope to demonstrate how leadership turmoil at the CDC and HHS, politicization of vaccine guidance, and shifting risk communication practices could combine into the wider polycrisis affecting trust, uptake, and health outcomes. Furthermore, I hope this document helps sensemake possible outcomes of these developments.

Let’s get to it!