How to Prepare for Iran War Fallout: What to Do, Buy, & Plan for as the Strait of Hormuz Crisis Intensifies

How the Iran War will reshape your economic reality & the steps you can take to minimize the impact.

On Feb. 28, 2026, the United States and Israel launched Operation Epic Fury against Iran. Within days, Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) had effectively shut down the Strait of Hormuz, a narrow maritime chokepoint through which roughly 20% of global petroleum consumption, more than 20% of global LNG trade, and about one-third of global seaborne fertilizer trade normally move. The International Energy Agency has called it “the largest supply disruption in the history of the global oil market.”

Nearly eight weeks later, the strait remains severely disrupted. Ceasefire talks in Islamabad on April 12 failed to produce a deal, and a second round planned for this week fell apart after Iran refused to send a delegation.

In a truly remarkable self-own, the Trump administration imposed a U.S. naval blockade of Iranian ports on April 13 following the collapse of the Islamabad Talks, creating a ‘dual blockade’ of the strait. On April 19, the U.S. Navy seized an Iranian container ship in the Gulf of Oman—the first interception under the blockade—and Iran has since attacked multiple commercial vessels in the strait in retaliation.

Most recently, China has deployed a 352-meter floating barrier and multiple coast guard/militia vessels to restrict access to Scarborough Shoal in the South China Sea. Given that the South China Sea carries nearly a third of global shipping, even localized disruptions can produce broader economic effects.

Oil surged to nearly $120 a barrel at its peak, briefly plunged below $91 on April 17 when Iran declared the strait open during the Lebanon ceasefire, then surged back to around $106 this week as the U.S. blockade and renewed Iranian attacks on shipping escalated (Brent was around $72 before the war).

U.S. gas prices crossed $4 a gallon nationally in early April and peaked at $4.16 on April 9, with California averaging $5.89 (and some stations well above $6). As of April 23, the national average sits at $4.02, about 35% higher than before the war began. Diesel is up over 50% year-over-year, averaging $5.40 nationally. And these are just the initial first-order effects!

The second- and third-order effects—on food prices, fertilizer availability, medical supplies, manufacturing, shipping costs, and the broader inflationary environment—are only just beginning to unfurl. Some won’t be felt for weeks; others will take months and even years. Unless something dramatic happens, this is looking really, really troubling. In this piece, I won’t spend much time on the moral injury of being an American or Israeli and watching your nation wage an ill-advised, illegal war that will cause completely unnecessary suffering among Iranians (as well as casualties among our own servicepeople). Suffice it to say: this continues to weigh on me personally. The focus of this piece is how fallout from the war will impact your life and what you need to do to prepare.

This can all feel abstract now, but soon it will not. Lots of Americans have been comparing this to the first couple months of 2020, when Covid was clearly spreading around the world but hadn’t yet hit the U.S. I’m a bit tired of this analogy, but all the same I think it is accurate.

What follows is my attempt to map the most obvious (but by no means comprehensive) cascade of impacts of the Strait of Hormuz Crisis, and ground all of this in an actionable plan for you. My hope is to clarify what’s already getting more expensive, what’s about to, what might become scarce, and what you can do right now to prepare.

Energy: Gas, Heating, & Electricity

Gasoline

The national average crossed $4 per gallon on April 2, its highest since August 2022. The March CPI report showed gas prices rose 21.2% in a single month, the largest monthly increase since 1967. If the strait remains disrupted through Q2, analysts project prices could top $5 nationally. The EIA’s April Short-Term Energy Outlook forecasts U.S. retail gasoline to average near $4.30/gal in April, with peak-of-crisis projections of Brent at $115 per barrel in Q2 in their high-disruption scenario.

Diesel

Diesel matters more than gasoline for the broader economy because it’s the energy source powering the trucks, trains, and ships that move everything you buy. Diesel has surged over 50% year-over-year, climbing as high as $5.64 per gallon and currently averaging $5.40. Nearly every single product that arrives at your door, your grocery store, or your workplace by truck is absorbing that cost increase. RSM U.S. chief economist Joe Brusuelas told Bloomberg that a 10% rise in diesel pushes the consumer price index up by 0.1% (and note that diesel is up considerably more than 10%).

Natural Gas

Natural gas and heating oil are climbing, though the U.S. is somewhat buffered by its domestic production. European and Asian natural gas prices have surged (up by as much as 45% and 140%, respectively) since the war started, in so small part because of Qatar’s significantly disrupted liquified natural gas (LNG) export capacity. Iranian drone strikes damaged the Ras Laffan complex, the world’s largest LNG facility, where repairs to damaged capacity are projected to take 3-5 years. U.S. natural gas prices are more insulated since they reflect domestic supply and demand, but heating oil, a refined petroleum product linked to global crude prices, is already rising. So if you heat with oil, expect significantly higher bills next winter.

Electricity

Electricity prices are affected indirectly. About 40% of U.S. electricity comes from natural gas. While domestic gas prices haven’t spiked as dramatically as global LNG, electricity was already getting more expensive before the war; retail prices rose 4.6% over the prior 12 months in March 2026. The war will only amplify that trajectory.

What You Can Do

Note: none of the below—or the commensurate “What You Can Do” sections that follow—will “solve” these problems, but preparedness is about increasing your own adaptability to face whatever might emerge, not removing the problem outright. Additionally, because some of this deals with financial matters, DISCLAIMER: None of the below is financial advice.

• Consider reducing discretionary driving wherever possible, whether through walking, riding your bike, investing in an e-bike if your budget allows, consolidating errands, carpooling, et al.

• Related: start discussing work-from-home options with your employer if possible (I recognize this is a privileged position, but if you have that privilege, use it—this also helps make sure folks who do have to commute have access to gas in the event of energy rationing).

• If you were considering switching to solar power or a more fuel-efficient vehicle (hybrid, EV, et al.), this may be your sign—but only if you can do so without taking on unjustifiable debt (it’s probably not an ideal time to spend recklessly).

• If you heat with oil, consider locking in a delivery price now rather than waiting for winter, and explore whether a heat pump or alternative heating source makes sense for your situation.

• Reduce electricity consumption: LED bulbs, smart thermostats, weatherization, and behavioral changes all compound. Every dollar you save on energy is a dollar available for the price increases headed your way in other categories.

Food: Fertilizer, Farming, & Grocery Prices

This is the impact that has been stressing me the most; its impacts are profound, but they’re on a lag, so most Americans haven’t experienced them yet.

Again, about one-third of global seaborne fertilizer trade normally passes through the Strait of Hormuz. The Gulf region exports nearly half the world’s urea and 30% of its ammonia. Natural gas, the primary feedstock for nitrogen fertilizer, has seen a 20% drop in production and price increases of up to 70% in some regions due to the Iran War—and curtailed production in key exporting hubs such as Qatar. U.S. fertilizer prices rose as much as 40% in the first month after the war began. On March 27, Iran agreed to a UN request to allow humanitarian and fertilizer shipments through the strait, though actual transit volumes remain far below pre-war levels.

The timing is spectacularly bad. The war started just as American farmers were beginning spring planting. In mid-March, U.S. fertilizer supply was at roughly 75% of normal levels according to UPI. Corn Belt farmers who couldn’t secure affordable fertilizer are now making agonizing decisions: apply less fertilizer (reducing yields), switch to soybeans (which need less fertilizer), or plant fewer acres entirely. Any of those choices reduces the corn supply, which feeds into livestock feed, ethanol, corn syrup, and hundreds of other products. (Related: beef prices were already up 16% since March 2025, with projections to continue increasing even prior to the war).

Meanwhile, Russia has suspended exports of ammonium nitrate to preserve domestic supply. China has blocked phosphate exports, removing around a quarter of global seaborne phosphate exports. The combined effect is a global fertilizer squeeze that mirrors—and could in fact exceed—the 2022 crisis following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

The UN World Food Programme projects that an additional 45 million people worldwide could face acute food insecurity or worse if the conflict does not end by mid-year and oil prices remain above $100 a barrel. For Americans, the impact will be felt more in the wallet than in empty shelves. Analysts warn that if the strait remains disrupted through planting season, the effects will compound through the fall harvest and into 2027.

What to do

• Today’s prices vs. Tomorrow’s Prices. The most straightforward hedge available to any household is to stock up on shelf-stable staples—rice, dried beans, pasta, canned goods, cooking oil, flour—when prices are lower. Current educated guesswork would tell us that these goods will cost more in 60-90 days than they do today. Buying a month’s extra supply now is not hoarding; it’s purchasing ahead of (predictable) inflation. Rotate as always.

• Support local food systems. Local producers are not immune to fertilizer, fuel, or packaging costs, but shorter supply chains can be more resilient than long global ones. CSA memberships, farmers’ markets, local food cooperatives, and community gardens are all forms of supply chain resilience. If you don’t already have relationships with local food producers, it’s a good time to build them.

• Grow what you can. Even a small garden reduces your dependence on global supply chains. Herbs, salad greens, tomatoes, peppers, and beans are high-value crops that thrive in containers and small spaces (and you can dehydrate them to increase shelf-life—I’ve recently been having a blast making things in my dehydrator). A small garden won’t feed your family, but it reduces how much exposure you have to surging prices—and the skills you develop now compound over time.

• Cook from scratch. You may be tired of hearing this, but it’s still worth repeating. Processed and prepared foods absorb energy, packaging, and transportation cost increases faster than raw ingredients. A household that cooks from basic staples will feel this crisis less than one dependent on frozen meals and takeout.

• Reduce food waste. The average American household wastes roughly 32% of the food it buys. In an inflationary environment, that waste is getting more expensive by the week. Meal planning, proper storage, and using leftovers are both ethically and financially advisable actions you can take.

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Psst: after I received some comments expressing frustration about being budget-constrained, I decided to publish a guide outlining 5 cheap, high-impact preps. Find that here:

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Beyond Energy & Food: Hidden Supply Chains

The Strait of Hormuz isn’t just an oil highway. It’s a chokepoint for a web of industrial commodities that feed into practically everything modern life depends on. The World Economic Forum and other industry analyses have mapped out at least nine major non-oil commodity categories affected:

Helium

Qatar produces roughly a third of the world’s helium supply. Spot helium prices have risen sharply, with some reports saying they roughly doubled. This matters because helium is essential to MRI systems and to parts of semiconductor manufacturing and other high-tech industrial processes. Industry executives and analysts warn prolonged shortages could slow chip output and disrupt production plans. For consumers, this means potential delays and price increases on electronics, medical imaging, and anything that depends on semiconductor supply.

Aluminum

Gulf states account for about 8% of global aluminum production and a meaningful share of global exports. Iranian strikes on Emirates Global Aluminium caused massive production disruptions. Aluminum feeds into automotive manufacturing, aerospace, construction, packaging (including food and beverage cans), and consumer electronics. Prices have already increased, and supply constraints could persist even after the strait reopens if damage to production capacity takes time to repair.

Plastics, Resins, & Synthetic Fibers

The Gulf is a major source of petrochemical feedstocks including methanol, monoethylene glycol, and naphtha, which are used to make plastics, polyester, packaging, and textiles. Around 85% of Middle Eastern polyethylene exports go through the strait. Shortages are already pushing plastic prices up by double-digit percentages across most manufacturing categories.

Sulfur

Half of global seaborne sulfur came from the Gulf. Sulfur is critical to fertilizer production, metal processing, and semiconductor manufacturing. Disruption ripples into agriculture, mining, and tech simultaneously.

Automotive & EV Production

The cascade is especially acute for automakers: aluminum, plastics, rubber, steel feedstocks, synthetic graphite for EV batteries (produced from petroleum coke, a byproduct of oil refining), and helium for semiconductor fabrication all converge. Toyota has already cut production by nearly 40,000 units. New vehicle prices and availability will likely be affected.

What to do

• Consider accelerating planned purchases of durable goods. If you need a new appliance, vehicle, computer, or phone in the next 6-12 months, you will likely save money buying it before inflationary events.

• Prioritize repair over replacement. Every item you fix instead of replacing avoids the inflated replacement cost. Invest in basic repair skills and tools. The iFixit community provides free guides for thousands of products.

• Consider stocking up on maintenance consumables. Oil filters, air filters, wiper blades, batteries, light bulbs, phone cables are all small items that are heavily import-dependent and likely to see price increases or spot shortages.

Financial & Economic Fallout: Prepping Finances

The macroeconomic picture is grim. The March CPI showed energy prices up 10.9% month-over-month, and meanwhile airline fares rose 14.9% year-over-year that same month. The Fed is trapped between cutting rates to support a slowing economy and holding rates to combat surging inflation, the dreaded ‘stagflation’ scenario. Financial markets have been volatile, even as major U.S. stock indexes have remained relatively resilient. The word “recession” is back in the conversation.

For households, this translates into a squeeze from multiple directions simultaneously: higher energy costs, higher food costs, rising prices on goods and services across the board, potential job market softening, and continued uncertainty about how long the disruption lasts.

What to do

REMINDER: This is not financial advice.

• Consider building or fortifying your emergency fund. The economic environment just became substantially more uncertain. If you can set aside even an extra $50 per week, that’s extra cushion for the future.

• Consider reducing discretionary spending preemptively. It’s not prudent to wait until your budget is stretched to then start cutting. This category includes: non-essential subscriptions, dining out, impulse purchases, and convenience spending—things you might reduce now to free up cash for the rising cost of essentials.

• Consider locking in costs where possible. Fixed-rate contracts for heating oil, insurance renewals at current rates, annual subscriptions versus monthly—anywhere you can lock in a price before the next round of increases flows through, do it.

• Consider holding cash. In general it’s a good preparedness practice to hold some cash, but that’s especially true during periods of geopolitical instability. Systems can go down and payment networks can be disrupted. Having 1-4 weeks of essential expenses in small bills at home is a baseline prep.

• Be wary of panic-selling. Selling long-term investment portfolios may not be the best choice of action; markets have recovered from every geopolitical crisis in history. The risk of selling now is locking in losses and forfeiting the prospective recovery, though the right answer will be unique to each person’s individual circumstances. Basically just stay frosty; be extremely careful and deliberate about decisions you make under duress, and ideally speak with a financial planner before doing anything dramatic.

Transportation & Mobility

Diesel price increases flow directly into shipping, public transit, and air travel costs. Airlines have already begun passing through higher fuel costs via fare increases and fee hikes, and Delta CEO Ed Bastian said strong demand leaves room to recover more of those costs. JetBlue and other airlines have raised some fees, while higher fuel costs are also pressuring freight and delivery networks more broadly. If your commute depends on driving, every additional dollar per gallon is a direct cost increase.

What to do

• Optimize your commute. Carpool, combine trips, work from home when possible. If you have two vehicles, preferentially use the more fuel-efficient one.

• Maintain your vehicle. Properly inflated tires, clean air filters, and timely oil changes improve fuel efficiency by 3-10%. In a high-price environment, these small efficiencies compound.

• Rethink air travel. If you’re planning discretionary flights in the next 6 months, be aware that fares are rising and will likely continue to do so. Book early if you must fly; consider ground transportation alternatives for shorter trips.

Medical & Pharmaceutical Considerations

The pharmaceutical supply chain is exposed to the Hormuz crisis in two ways: direct disruption of raw materials and energy costs that increase manufacturing expenses.

The FDA claims that about 78% of active pharmaceutical ingredient (API) manufacturers serving the U.S. market are located outside the United States, with India and China accounting for close to a third. India buys over 40% of its urea from the Gulf region and has already reduced production at some chemical facilities. Additionally, helium shortages could affect MRI availability and other high-tech manufacturing processes.

These effects are less immediate than energy and food price increases, but they’re potentially more dangerous for vulnerable individuals.

What to do

• Maintain a 90-day supply of all prescription medications. If you haven’t done this yet, make it a priority this week. Talk to your doctor and insurer about 90-day mail-order prescriptions.

• Stock backup OTC medications. Pain relievers, allergy medication, cold medicine, digestive aids, first aid supplies, anything you use regularly. Buy a backup supply now, at today’s prices.

• If you or a family member depends on an MRI for ongoing diagnosis, communicate with your provider about potential scheduling delays and whether alternative imaging modalities might serve as interim options.

The Psychological Dimension

I know this is a lot. The Iran war comes on the heels of an already exhausting sequence of crises in this decade—pandemic, inflation, tariffs, political upheaval, climate disasters, to name a few—and adds a genuine wartime economy on top. The temptation to either panic or dissociate is strong (believe me, I get it)

Neither helps. Panic leads to bad decisions (impulse purchases, hoarding, financial mistakes driven by fear) and dissociation leads to inaction (the “I’ll deal with it later” response that leaves you exposed when the price increases hit). The middle path is structured preparedness. Not everything at once, not in a frenzy; pick one domain from this guide and take one concrete action on it today. Then another tomorrow. Ibid the day after. Convert the anxiety into a checklist, and work the checklist at human speed.

Sample Consolidated Checklist

Reminder: This is not financial advice. This is a sample checklist I made for myself that I am sharing with you below.

This week:

• Fill your gas tank and keep it above half (avoid being caught in a price spike or shortage)

• Buy a month’s extra supply of shelf-stable staples at current prices

• Refill all prescriptions to maximum supply; order 90-day refills where possible

• Review your household budget for areas to cut in anticipation of rising costs

This month:

• Build or reinforce your emergency fund (even $200 matters)

• Lock in any fixed-rate contracts where possible (heating oil, insurance)

• Make any planned major purchases (appliances, electronics, vehicles) sooner rather than later

• Start or expand a home food garden, even if it’s just herbs and greens

This quarter:

• Establish or deepen relationships with local food producers

• Develop repair skills that reduce dependence on replacement purchases

• Reduce energy consumption through weatherization, LED lighting, and behavioral changes

• Build a 2-4 week supply of household essentials including OTC medications

Ongoing:

• Follow the conflict’s trajectory and its effects on commodity prices

• Adjust your budget as new price realities set in

• Share information and resources with your community

• Vote, organize, and advocate for the policies and systems you believe would prevent the next crisis

To Bang My ‘Resilience’ Drum One More Time

The Hormuz crisis is a systems crisis that demonstrates how interconnected the modern world is, and how a single chokepoint failure cascades across industries, continents, and households.

The deeper lesson is that resilience is a mindset, and it takes time to cultivate. The sooner you start, the better prepared you’ll be for whatever might come. The households that entered this crisis with pantries stocked, emergency funds built, debts paid down, and community ties established are obviously better prepared to weather it than those who didn’t. General preparedness is broadly applicable.

You can’t control anything to do with the Strait of Hormuz. Nor can you control oil prices, fertilizer markets, or Federal Reserve policy. But you can control building a strong community (both locally and digitally), the skills you’ve developed, and what’s in your pantry. Most of all, you can control how you think about prepping—shifting it from stock stereotypes of survivalists to the opportunity to develop a sense of empowerment and agency in a moment where those are hard to come by. And you can share that with your friends, families, and neighbors. The situation is deteriorating rather than stabilizing; the dual blockade is active, Iran has resumed attacking ships in the strait, and a second round of talks collapsed this week. If the strait remains closed through summer, things could get extremely hairy.

Stay safe out there.

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This piece is part of the Reality Studies Resilience & Preparedness Manual. For more, see the full Resilience & Prepping section.