I’m back in my hotel bed in Vienna at 11am, still a bit jetlagged but not sleeping. I’m listening to the new Shovel Dance Collective album, which I’ve had on repeat for the last few days. I’d intended to be up and about, making plans with friends—and inevitably I will later; travel feels like such a precious luxury now, one that I feel a gratitude for that I’ve never quite experienced before, the world as fragile and perilous as it currently is. I’m still basking in the glow of the historic midterm elections in the US, but the strategist in me ever reasserts himself, reminding me of the paths I’ve been mapping across different outcomes for the past few months.
Because make no mistake, these next few months still carry tremendous risk for the world. Some of the most consequential world tyrants suddenly find themselves on the back foot—certainly a preferable outcome to its alternative, but one that we must treat with special vigilance. For the first time in recent memory, Trump and Netanyahu are on the ropes.
There is still plenty of time between now and early January for Trump to interfere with the election—whether through “a manufactured international crisis that the president uses to fraudulently assert total control over the election and its results,” or through “bureaucratic maneuvers in Congress, and a declaration by the [Republican] party that certain of its political opponents are categorically not eligible to serve in Congress” in January—and Americans need to remain vigilant to these dangers.
Turning our eyes aborad, a recent Reuters report notes that a “weakened Trump, facing a Democratic Congress able to constrain his military options, has greater incentive to seek a deal, said two sources close to Gulf government circles. A full-scale assault on Iran now looks less likely, they said.”
I hope—for all of us—that this is the scenario that plays out, I’m glad to admit I see it as at least possible. But we also have to remember the following (from the same piece):
The rebuke from the US electorate came a week after Israeli voters delivered their own blow to the war’s other architect, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. His right-wing bloc won 53 of the Knesset’s 120 seats in the October 27 election, eight short of a majority, leaving him fighting to retain power.
Two beleaguered leaders, each with his political future increasingly tied to the war’s outcome, may come to see escalation not as a risk but as a way out of their political predicament. Such a calculation may be irrational, but no less dangerous.
Meanwhile, experts believe that the Davidson Window, which holds that China will invade Taiwan in 2027, is still valid. In the version of events in which America remains embroiled in an offensive in Iran would be less likely to intervene in such a scenario. US-mediated peace talks between Russia and Ukraine are set for Nov. 10-11 in Abu Dhabi, but, as German Chancellor Friedrich Merz points out, it’s “important that Russia finally and seriously engages in negotiations about a ceasefire and a subsequent peace agreement … I do not see that happening so far.”
And all the above is only a slice of the various other ongoing conflicts and genocides around the world, as well as the latent pressures that might spill into active strife. But next week will give us an inkling of the shape of 2027 and beyond.
So I’m living by Antonio Gramsci’s call for “pessimism of the intellect, optimism of the will.” Candidly, my nervous system has been so jangled by the past few years that I’m not totally sure how my body would react to a 2027 characterized by peace, reconciliation, and a reassertion of democratic principles. I let myself hope, but guardedly.
Some folks have stopped in to ask where I’ve been (which I’ve appreciated!). I largely took the late summer/early fall off, due to a convergence of a generalized exhaustion with the social media hustle and because other pursuits made greater claims on my time. Earlier this year I joined Metaculus, and have been enjoying the new challenge of learning about and communicating the realities of wisdom-of-crowds forecasting. I’d been training for a marathon since April, but an overuse injury has sidelined me til 2027. I started the Hidden Systems Book Club (subscribe to it, it’s fun!) with my colleague Leah Zaidi—who is also leading the Futures of AI project commissioned by the Robert Wood Johnson Foundation, which I joined as Secondary Researcher & Writer. That project, by the way, is in development and public; we just released the drivers report which you can find here. The rest will roll out over the coming months. I’ll also be releasing a conversation I did with her that breaks down the process of doing strategic foresight on Urgent Futures.
Speaking of Urgent Futures: yes, I’m bringing it back soon after my brief hiatus. One thing I’m noodling on in the background is doing contained seasons on a particular theme, rather than just individual conversations. How exactly that would look and feel is still forming in my mind; I’d welcome input if you have things you’d like to see/hear.
For fun, I’m enjoying spending time with my partner and our new puppy, a chocolate lab (we think—he was a rescue *virtue signal*) who’s as smart as he is willful, and steadily making my way through Robin Hobb’s jaw-droppingly astounding Realm of the Elderlings series (on book 7 of 16 at the time of writing). If any of my readers are fans (or haters), let me know! I’d love to find folks to talk to about it, even if just in the comments.
This is admittedly a less polished post than I normally do, though perhaps I’ll do more like it. No clean wrap-up today, but wherever you are, I hope you’re staying safe out there.