Welcome to the Urgent Futures podcast, the show that finds {signals} in the noise. Each week, I sit down with leading thinkers whose research, concepts, and questions clarify the chaos, from culture to the cosmos.
👉 Never miss an episode! 👉 Subscribe to Urgent Futures now: Youtube | Apple Podcasts | Spotify.
And if you’re loving the show, please share it with a friend who you think would as well! You have no idea how much word-of-mouth helps the channel find new audiences (and thank you to everyone who has supported the show by leaving ratings and reviews on your preferred podcast apps!)
My guest this week is Timothy B. Lee.
Timothy B. Lee is a reporter who has written about technology, economics, and public policy for more than a decade. Before he launched Understanding AI in 2023, he wrote for the Washington Post, Vox.com, and Ars Technica. He has a master’s degree in computer science from Princeton.
If there are two letters in the English language you’ve been unable to escape over the past four years, it’s A and I. Artificial intelligence has emerged as the buzziest tech category since the metaverse and NFTs, but unlike those, AI has managed to reach a level of market dominance that almost defies imagination—to quote my article on the prospective AI bubble:
AI [absorbed] 57.9% of all global venture capital funding in early 2025…and a growing share of venture debt. The stock market itself has become hostage to this concentration: the “Magnificent Seven” dominate the S&P 500, with Nvidia alone accounting for close to 8% of its weight … a recent Financial Times report—ominously titled, “America is now one big bet on AI,” found that the hundreds of billions of dollars companies are investing in AI accounted for an eye-watering 40% share of all U.S. GDP growth in 2025.
Sit with that for a second.
Thus, whether you like it or not, it’s in your best interest to have a clear understanding of what AI is, even in the broad strokes. And that’s a deceptively tricky thing to do amid all the frenzied hype and doomerism; there’s a lot of nonsense and ungrounded speculation flying around. So I thought I’d sit down with somebody whose work helped ground my own understandings: today’s guest, Timothy B. Lee.
Tim published a piece on his Substack Understanding AI a few years ago called “Large language models, explained with a minimum of math and jargon,” which for my money is still the single most lucid plain-English breakdown you’ll find anywhere. And he’s continued to produce other informative analyses—if you haven’t already, I encourage you to subscribe to Understanding AI to, well, understand AI.
It’s remained a key reference for me as I navigate the AI hype-doom binary, so I wanted to bring him on the show to talk about what he’s learned and what he’s thinking about, including his current assessments of the AI industry and its future prospects, and he did not disappoint.
Longtime Urgent Futures audiences will note that he’s a bit more optimistic about the state of affairs than I am, though he’s certainly not a blind booster. And while I remain deeply critical of many of the social, economic, and political trappings associated with the AI industry, the clarity of his thought offered additional dimensions for consideration. So without further ado, please enjoy this illuminating conversation with Timothy B. Lee.
Another episode you might like:
A far out conversation on “rewilding reality” in the AI age with polymath Michael Garfield:
Support Reality Studies
NOTE: Thank you for supporting my work by purchasing these products through the links provided. I will only ever share products I actually believe in.
In case you haven’t noticed, it’s time to take your digital hygiene seriously. There are a few super simple, effective things you can do to up your digital self-defense considerably, and the first is to get a VPN. ProtonVPN is the gold standard, with fast service and a commitment to transparency. I promise you: once you realize how easy it is to use your VPN, you’ll be kicking yourself that you didn’t start sooner. Click here to get 55% off VPN Plus ($4.49/mo).
1Password: Password managers may not make for the most riveting dinner party conversation, but listen: 1) They make your life so much easier—it’s called “1Password” because once you get set up it’s the only password you’ll ever need to remember again. 2) They make your online life so much safer, ensuring that you use unique passwords for every account, stored with a high degree of encryption. 3) They are not nearly as complicated to set up as you think they are! Head over to 1Password using this link for a free trial, and individual plans for less than $3/mo after that.
ZBiotics: Right now, get 10% off ZBiotics. Just head over to zbiotics.com and use code JESSEDAMIANI. If you have an evening with drinking and a morning you need to feel fresh, these are a great help. Genetically engineered by a team of PhD microbiologists, ZBiotics is a probiotic drink that breaks down the byproduct of alcohol responsible for rough mornings after drinking (acetaldehyde).
MUD\WTR: Right now, save $20 on starter packs using this link. There’s four different blends to choose from, but my current favorite is :rest. “This is our protest to hustle culture,” they say, and that resonates with me. Not only does it actually help me ramp down to sleep, but since I froth a little milk and make a latte with it, I get the warm cozy feeling of morning coffee at night. (For the evening tea drinkers out there: I’m not saying it’s better, just different!)
Mission Farms CBD: Right now, get 25% off your first order using this link to sign up for emails. Mission Farms CBD crafts full-spectrum CBD products for specific conditions like sleep, stress, and discomfort, using a combination of CBD and terpenes found in essential oils. I swear by this stuff. All of Mission Farms’s CBD comes from a small farm in Bend, Oregon. They farm the hemp organically, tend every plant by hand, and test for purity four times: the soil, the hemp, the hemp-extract, and the final products. This CBD is designed for wellness and it shows.
CREDITS: This podcast is edited and produced by Adam Labrie and me, Jesse Damiani. Adam Labrie also directed, shot, and edited the video version of the podcast, which is available on YouTube. The podcast is presented by Reality Studies. If you appreciate the work I’m doing, please subscribe and share it with someone you think would enjoy it.
Find more episodes of Urgent Futures at: youtube.com/@UrgentFutures. Past conversations include Taylor Lorenz, Lisa Messeri, Legacy Russell, William E. Rees, Renée DiResta, and more. Here is another recent episode with Alyssa Battistoni discussing her latest book Free Gifts: Capitalism and the Politics of Nature:
